Ye Fan, Southwest Securities: In 2025, the upward trend of domestic economy will continue, and it is estimated that the annual RRR will be lowered by about 100bp. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. Ye Fan, chief economist of Southwest Securities, said that in 2025, the domestic economy will continue to stabilize and upward under the policy. From the structural point of view, infrastructure and manufacturing investment are expected to remain the main support items for domestic investment next year, and the decline in real estate investment will gradually narrow; Domestic demand is expected to play a stronger role in stimulating the economy than external demand, and domestic residents' consumption is expected to continue to pick up under the policy. Regarding the direction of fiscal and monetary policies, Ye Fan predicted that the issuance scale of ultra-long-term special government bonds will be around 1.5 trillion -2 trillion yuan in 2025, and it will continue to support the "dual" areas. In the first half of next year or the peak of government bond issuance, there may be a RRR cut for hedging. It is estimated that the RRR cut will be about 100bp for the whole year, and the interest rate cut will be decided by camera. The interest rate cut of 25bp-40bp may be promoted step by step.Huatai Securities: The countercyclical adjustment is stronger than expected, and the expansion of domestic demand may fall on the policy of boosting consumption. Huatai Securities believes that the macro-policy orientation conveyed by the Central Economic Work Conference is more positive, in fiscal policy (expanding deficit, increasing special national debt, expanding the use scope of special debt, etc.), monetary policy (moderately easing, timely lowering the RRR and cutting interest rates), real estate and capital market (stabilizing the property market and stock market), and expanding domestic demand policy (implementing special actions to boost consumption) In terms of currency securities, Huatai Securities believes that there is still room for interest rate cuts. On the one hand, the current real interest rate level is still high in horizontal comparison; On the other hand, credit expansion, especially the balance sheet expansion of developers and local governments, is relatively weak, and the cost of capital has room for further decline. It is expected that the central bank will cut interest rates by 30-50 basis points next year, but the pace may be affected by external changes and exchange rates.China Construction established a new company in Beijing, including real estate development and operation business. According to the enterprise search APP, China Construction Eighth Bureau (Beijing) Construction Co., Ltd. was recently established, with Liu Guangtao as its legal representative and a registered capital of 300 million yuan. Its business scope includes: construction project construction; Construction engineering design; Construction of cultural relics protection project; Construction engineering survey; Real estate development and management; Quality inspection of construction projects; Safety production inspection and testing, etc. Enterprise equity penetration shows that the company is indirectly wholly-owned by China Construction.
South Korea's KOSPI index erased all the declines since the martial law storm.CICC: Gradually filling the gap between inflation and demand will be the direction of economic work next year. The Central Economic Work Conference will be held in Beijing from December 11th to 12th. The research department of CICC believes that for the economic goal of next year, after "maintaining stable economic growth", the meeting proposed to "maintain overall stability in employment and prices" and put forward "focusing on goal guidance and striving to achieve an optimal combination of stable growth, stable employment and reasonable price recovery". This is the first time in the past 15 years that "stabilizing prices" has been taken as the goal of annual economic work during the period of low prices. The research department of CICC believes that gradually bridging the inflation gap and demand gap will be the direction of economic work next year.Zhejiang: By 2027, the output value of the province's industrial machine tool industry will exceed 150 billion yuan. The Office of the Leading Group for High-quality Development of Manufacturing Industry in Zhejiang Province recently issued the Implementation Plan for High-quality Development of Industrial Machine Tool Industry in Zhejiang Province (2025-2027). The "Implementation Plan" proposes that by 2025, the output value of the province's industrial machine tool industry will exceed 120 billion yuan, making it the highland of the national high-end industrial machine tool industry. Positive results have been achieved in the construction of the national advanced manufacturing cluster of East Zhejiang industrial machine tools, with 30 new "little giant" enterprises specializing in manufacturing and 50 new products. Form a number of application scenarios with national promotion value. By 2027, the output value of the province's industrial machine tool industry will exceed 150 billion yuan, the supporting level of key core technologies and key functional components will be greatly improved, and the level of integrated application will be at the forefront of the country.
Tao Lin: Tesla won four firsts in the evaluation of "User Satisfaction Index of New Energy Automobile Industry in China in 2024". Tao Lin Weibo, global vice president of Tesla, issued a document saying: Share a good news with friends. In the evaluation result of "NEV-CACSI of New Energy Automobile Industry in China in 2024" recently released by china association for quality, Won four firsts: Model 3 is the pure electric medium-sized car with the highest user satisfaction, Model Y is the pure electric medium-sized SUV with the highest user satisfaction, the first in sales service satisfaction and the first in after-sales service satisfaction.Wofei Sky Global Headquarters Base started in Chengdu. On December 12th, Wofei Sky Global Headquarters Base officially started in Chengdu High-tech Zone Future Science and Technology City. The first phase of the project started this time covers an area of about 30 mu, with a planned construction area of 26,700 square meters. It will build a production chain including composite material production, component assembly, painting, machine assembly, flight test, etc., which is mainly used for mass production of Wofei Changkong self-developed AE200 products.South Korean police said on the 13th that they were considering detaining and searching the correspondence records of President Yin Xiyue and the presidential residence. (Xinhua News Agency)
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14